Docusign Envelope ID: F1AD002D-A351-45C3-A430-1521A74E0975 Special Called Joint Meeting December 12,2024 Town of Mocksville Commissioners & Mocksville Planning Board The Town of Mocksville Board of Commissioners and Mocksville Planning Board met for a special joint meeting on Thursday, December 12, 2024 at 5:30 p.m. in the Mocksville Education Building located at 201 Salisbury Street, Mocksville, NC. Present: Commissioners Present: Mayor, Will Marklin Justin Draughn Carl Lambert Johnny Frye Jenny Stevenson Absent: Rob Taylor Present: Planning Board Present: Vice Chair, Neal Cheek Clint Junker Chris Domanski Lee Rollins Chuck Taylor Sarah. Johnston Absent: Matt Davidson Others Present: Ken Gamble, Town) Manager Lynn Trivette, Town Clerk Emily Quance, Deputy Clerk Brian Moore, Public Works Director Johnny Easter, Planning and Zoning Director Michele Kabei-Walsh, Central Permit Specialist Mayor Marklin called the meeting to order. Invocation; Mayor Marklin Pledge of Allegiance; Sekaiah Taylor Troop 575 Adoption of Agenda A motion was made by Planning Board Member Domanski to adopt the agenda. The motion was seconded by Planning Board Member. Junker which carried by a unanimous vote 6-0. December 12, 2024 Docusign Envelope ID: FIAD002D-A351-45C3-A430-1521A74E0975 Ar motion was made by Commissioner Frye to adopt the agenda. The motion was. seconded by Commissioner Stevenson which carried by a unanimous vote 4-0. Adoption of Planning Board Minutes October 23, 2024 A motion was made by Planning Board. Member Taylor to adopt the October 23, 2024 minules. The motion was. seconded by Planning Board Member Jnker which carried by ai unanimous vote 6-0. Oath of Office - Chris Domanski given by Deputy Clerk, Emily Quance about residential development and thei impact on the schools. Davie County School Superintendent, Jeff Wallace addressed the Board. He discussed with the Board Dr. McKibben Demographer has successfully completed more than 200 projects for school districts, planners, and developers as well as provide expert testimony in ai number of cases. Dr. McKibben presented us with ai ten year forecast in 2012. He said two things: You are going to grow in the Southern part of the County You: are going toi reduce in sizei in the Eastern part oft the County Cooleemee Elementary population went up and William Ellis Middle and Shady Grove Elementary went Ididi not think this would really happen; but it did. Ten years and) Icould not believe how close his forecast was. Iam talking about forecasting the number of3id graders who would be in each of our Two years ago we wanted to engage. Dr. McKibben again; so spoke with Mayor, Will Marklin, Town Manager, Ken Gamble County Manager, Brian Barnett and some folks with Cooleemee and ask him to do another population forecast and he did. Thisi is what I would like to discuss with you tonight. down. schools. It was amazing how close he was. Key note whichi is a national trend; we: are: not having as many babies to replace the people in DC and families would have tol have 2.1 children per family; DC birth rate is 1.87 sO we are not even New construction is not a good indicator for student growth; just because you have new houses Thel largest group of people leaving DCi is the age range of1 181 to 24; they are going offt to college The next group of people leaving DC are 70 and older; moving in with family or moving closer to Discussing the birth rate; women in life are waiting longer tol have children; families are waiting until their 30's typically only tol have 1 to2 children; this effects the replacement rate. 2015 there were 6,325 kids enrolled int thes school system; shortly after that we started to seea decline in enrollment; sometimes 100 or more; probably our lowest was around 5,800. replacing what we have here now. that is not necessary ag goodi indicator. Most of Dr. McKibben's work is based on birth rate. and not coming back; some move to urban areas. their children. The last 4 years we have saw it plateau or as slight increase. 2024; today we have 6005 kids enrolled. 2023; we had 6010; SO we: are: staying around 6,000. December12, 2024 Docusign Envelope D: F1AD002D-A351-45C3-A430-1521A74E0975 13 Schools -( (6) Elementary Schools 6,650, (3) Middle Schools 1,450 and (1 traditional) High School 1,950(I)ECHS, Alternative School and Virtual School Population Forecast Summary 2022-2023 - 2032-2033 Compare the 6,000 range now with the 6,325 back in 2015. absorb 300 kids; however where are those kids located. Dr. McKibben: said we would: see an increase of300 kids in 10 years so we should be able to Ifwe were to run full capacity we would redistrict; we did redistrict in 2014. Icannot expand footprints; Ih have to go capture houses and neighborhoods and collect various Most oft thes schools are int the 70's% range and we could add classrooms; William RI Davie Elementary is around 95% and we would not want to add more classrooms. The apartments built near Walmart 10 years ago; Cooper Creek; ifyou ride through there you will see bikes, toys which means kids most likely live there but Cooper Creek had no impact on the William R Dr. McKibben says the reason for that is they move into an apartment first; then have children; and once school age they typically move into al house; typically in the County ifthey can affordit. Thel high school (93% class rooms that have kids in them now) can be expanded by 36 more class rooms. There are rooms now that can be converted to class rooms. We do not want a school at 100% but 93%t to Dr. McKibben says this % can change ifindustry changes; higher graduation rates; inflation rate and The age group that is coming back is in their 40's. The median age of the districts population will increase The age group int their 70's that are leaving; the young adults can afford their houses more than they can afford the new construction $350,000 to $400,000. This is a way to attract to get young families to move The General Assembly. just approved a voucher plan for any and alll kids; there has been an enormous increase in applications to support parents in sending their children toj private schools. Iam not arguing against private, charter or home schools. The funds have been designated for the next 10y years; we cannot datal before a redistrict. Our district overall is 85% capacity. Davie population. 94%. mortgage rate. from 44.4 in 2020 to 46.01 in 2030. back. not sustain this voucher plan budget and the state budget. We could see a decline inp public school kids. Expanding thei internship programs; have places for the kids to go; insurance issues; the businesses can usually only take a couple kids at a time. Int the past: 5 years 1113 residential building permits were granted. The combined largest school district permits are Cornazter Elementary School 75% and Shady Grove Elementary School 78%. December 12, 2024 Docusign Envelope ID: F1AD002D-A351-45C3-A430-1521A74E0975 Mocksville 85%. Based ont the population forecast increase and the requests for permits Davie County Schools can absorb the anticipated growth. Both feed William Ellis Middle School 76% capacity. Total district enrollment is forecasted toi increase by 63 students or 1.1% between 2022-2023 and 2027-2028. Total enrollment willi increase by 220 students or 3.6% from 2027-2028 to 2032- 2033. Wer need child care. We are replacing people that we lost during COVID. Even ift the district continues tol have some amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years the rate, magnitude, and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant We have to continue to discuss all these changes. Mooresville, Clemmons is full and they are coming this way. Itist notj just traffic, property values and schools; there are a number of factors before deciding on factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change. new development. Adjourn AI motion was made by Planning Board Member Taylor to adjourn the December. 12, 2024. Special Called Joint Meeting. The motion was seconded by Planning Board. Member Rollins which carried bya aanimous vote 6-0. ATO Neal Cheek." Vice 6F Chair -Signedby: (lint junkur Planning Board Member Amotion was made by Commissioner. Lambert to adjourn the December 12, 2024 Special Called. Joint Meeting. The motion was seconded by Commissioner Draughn which carried by a unanimous vote 4-0. Wilian William J.N Marklin, Lynn dken 2024 la ATIAL aete Town Clerk, MMC, NCCMC December 12,